The Evolution of Government Fraud

The first ACFE Report to the Nations was published nearly 30 years ago in 1996. It would be overly simplistic to say that fraud has grown since then, but the data clearly shows significant increases as more information has been reported by Certified Fraud Examiners (CFEs) around the world. Over nearly three decades, the Report to the Nations has evolved into a comprehensive study that considers a multitude of fraud-related factors. It is not enough to ask “who” or “how” — the report has consistently sought to ask all the questions it can to learn from past fraud cases. Looking back at the past reveals some powerful insights.  

Government Organizational Type: Median Loss 

For example, from 2002 to 2024, the median loss of a fraud case of a government organization victim tripled.  In 2002, when the second report was published, government victim organizations experienced a median loss of $48,000. By 2024, the 13th iteration of the report estimated median losses at $150,000. Other victim organization classifications included public and private companies and not-for-profit organizations.  

Data compiled from the ACFE's Report to the Nations, 2002–2024.

Government as an Industry: Median Loss 

In addition to being analyzed as an organizational type, government is also classified as an industry within the report, alongside public administration. Starting in 2004, the report began to analyze the median losses by industry, where government agencies and public administration experienced a median loss of $45,000.  Over the next 20 years, these losses steadily increased, reaching a median of $200,000 in the 2024 report.  

Data compiled from the ACFE's Report to the Nations, 2004–2024.

Corruption Cases by Industry  

When analyzing government agencies and public administration as victim industries, corruption cases within the government have nearly doubled. In 2006, corruption cases accounted for approximately 26.1% of the cases, but by 2024, 52% of reported cases involved corruption.  

Data compiled from the ACFE's Report to the Nations, 2006–2024.

Corruption often exists in concert with other fraud schemes yet is a separate branch of the Fraud Tree. Total corruption cases have increased over time. Demonstrated below, the past ten years have shown that government fraud has a higher percentage of corruption than an average case.  

 

Data compiled from the ACFE's Report to the Nations, 2006–2024.

A Broader Perspective 

If fraud is increasing everywhere, it stands to reason that corruption, and median losses, are increasing in government fraud cases as well. Fraud and fraud opportunities are nearly everywhere. 

One cannot help but ask: is more fraud occurring, or are we just uncovering more than before? Yes. Fraud perpetrators, schemes and opportunities are all increasing, and in turn, the reporting also increases. 

In 1996, the world population was just less than 6 billion and estimates of the world population in 2024 approximate more than 8 billion. With projections of the population expected to peak before the turn of the century, it is only logical to assume that fraud’s cyber manifest destiny will continue.