Setting the Stage to Fight Fraud: Using ‘Scenario Planning’ to Prevent Crime

Television police dramas typically portray investigators piecing together clues in the aftermath of a puzzling crime. They build a theory about how the crime was perpetrated, concealed, and – if theft was involved – converted into personal gain. Every step of the crime is analyzed as the investigators ask: When did it happen? Why did it happen? Who had access? Who may have observed the act? How did the perpetrator cover his tracks or dispose of his ill-gotten gains?

The information then is assembled carefully into the case framework until a likely series of events emerges. By understanding the whole, the television investigators build a picture of the crime and the characteristics and probable actions of the perpetrator. These characteristics help identify a likely suspect or pool of suspects who then face searing interrogations until eventually someone confesses.

Not unlike the detectives and investigators of television, fraud examiners build theories, gather information, and develop leads that point to suspect business operations or employees.

But imagine if fraud examiners could bypass the entire investigation process and actually solve the crime before it happened! By using a risk assessment tool called “scenario planning,” this may be a real possibility.

The Power of Scenario Planning